The possibility of North Korea conducting a fifth nuclear test, possibly within weeks, has been heightened by a failed missile launch on Friday that was an embarrassing setback for leader Kim Jon Un, South Korean officials and international experts said.
North Korea holds a ruling Workers Party congress in early May, at which Kim is likely to trumpet his achievements in building up Pyongyang’s weapons prowess. The South Korean officials and experts say he will be keen to go into the congress with a show of strength, and not a failed rocket launch.
“North Korea is capable of conducting an additional nuclear test at any time if there is a decision by Kim Jong Un,” said a senior South Korean official involved in national security policies involving the North, its bitter rival.
When asked if the failed missile launch had increased the possibility that Kim would order a nuclear test, the official said the North is likely to “engage in additional provocations.”
“Such a nuclear test and the missile launch believed to be a failure this morning are both among the provocations that North Korea would have reasonably tried,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity since he was not authorised to speak to the media on the matter.
U.S. and South Korean officials have said the North attempted and failed to launch what was believed to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile on Friday as it celebrated the “Day of the Sun” birthday of the country’s founder Kim Il Sung, the current leader’s grandfather.
The United Nations Security Council on Friday condemned North Korea’s failed ballistic missile launch, warning that it was a “clear violation” of U.N. resolutions and the council could take further punitive measures against Pyongyang.
“The members of the Security Council strongly condemned the firing of a ballistic missile by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on April 15,” the council said in a statement, using North Korea’s official name.
“Although the DPRK’s ballistic missile launch was a failure, this attempt constituted a clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions,” it said.
The U.S. Defense Department called the test of the road-mobile missile a “fiery, catastrophic” failure, while North Korea has not made any public comment on the issue.
The senior South Korean official said Kim’s military aides would try to compensate for the failed missile launch and another official in Seoul said South Korea’s military was on high alert for an additional missile launch, or a nuclear test.
Michael Elleman, a U.S.-based rocket expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said another missile test was unlikely.
“Given that this test failed, North Korea might elect to conduct another nuclear test,” he said.
John Schilling, an aerospace expert contributing to the 38 North website, said he would not expect North Korea to attempt another launch until it had figured out the problem. “That would be several months at a minimum, possibly much longer,” he said.
Failure on the launch pad was in some respects an advantage as it was easy to examine the wreckage, he said, adding:
“Failed tests are always learning experiences, and North Korea has demonstrated the ability to persevere and eventually develop an operational system.”
IMPATIENT FOR SUCCESS
The missile that failed on Friday was likely a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile, experts and South Korean media said. The Musudan has a design range of more than 3,000 km (1,800 miles) that can be fired from a road-mobile launcher.
It has never been flight-tested, although many experts believe that the North may launch it as part of its effort to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
For South Korean President Park Geun-hye, the possibility of another nuclear test by the North will give her an opportunity to work with the opposition to meet the threat, and salvage her presidency after an upset defeat in parliamentary elections on Wednesday.
“If North Korea continues to go on with these provocations, national security will become a more pressing issue, and that’s where the president can try to resolve a very difficult situation for herself,” said Kookmin University political science professor Hong Sung-gul.
An Chan-il, a former North Korean military officer who now heads a think tank in the South, said ordinarily the North would repeat the failed missile launch to try and perfect it, but the impending party congress may mean Kim and his military aides will be impatient to show off success.
“What if they try the Musudan and fail again? That will look so bad, so I would say a nuclear test is more likely next,” An said.
The North conducted its fourth nuclear test in January and said it was a successful hydrogen bomb test, a claim disputed by experts and the South Korean and U.S. governments.
The U.N. Security Council imposed new sanctions on the North in March, for its nuclear and rocket tests this year.
The U.S.-based 38 North website, which monitors events in North Korea, said earlier this week that satellite imagery showed there had been activity at the country’s nuclear site and the possibility of a fifth nuclear test “could not be ruled out”.
(Additional reporting by Ju-min Park in Seoul and David Brunnstrom in Washington; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)